Abstract
Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.
Highlights
First used as a method for war game analysis after World War II (Kahn and Wiener 1967, Shoemaker 1993, van der Heijden 1996), scenario analysis is applied in a wide variety of contexts, such as political decision making (e.g., Galer 2004a, Kahane 2004), business planning (e.g., Wack 1985, Davis 1998), and environmental management (e.g., Alcamo 2001, Wollenberg et al 2000)
Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems
Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise
Summary
First used as a method for war game analysis after World War II (Kahn and Wiener 1967, Shoemaker 1993, van der Heijden 1996), scenario analysis is applied in a wide variety of contexts, such as political decision making (e.g., Galer 2004a, Kahane 2004), business planning (e.g., Wack 1985, Davis 1998), and environmental management (e.g., Alcamo 2001, Wollenberg et al 2000). Scenarios have been used to consider future changes in social-ecological systems at scales ranging from local villages through to the entire globe (e.g., IGD and FESSA 2002, Carpenter et al 2005, Lebel et al 2005, Alcamo et al 2006). Multiscale scenarios can better maintain relevance across multiple decision-making scales than, for instance, a single-scale global exercise, and thereby potentially enhance stakeholder engagement and use of the scenario results. Many of the authors were involved in the local, regional, or global scenario development exercises of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Carpenter et al 2005, Lebel et al 2005), which aimed to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being at multiple scales. These include the Global Environmental Outlook scenarios (UNEP 2002a), which have been used in regional assessments in Africa (UNEP 2002b), Latin America, and the Caribbean (UNEP 2003); the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (Nakišenoviš et al 2000), which have been used, for instance, to develop landuse change scenarios for Europe (Schröter et al 2006, Verbrug et al 2006, Westhoek et al 2006) and climate scenarios for the UK (Hulme et al 2002); and the MedAction scenarios that used the European level VISIONS project scenarios (Rotmans et al 2000, 2005) to explore land degradation in the Mediterranean region (Kok et al 2006a,b)
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