Abstract
AbstractThe paper presents results from a study examining the relationship between large-scale modes of climate variability with the fluctuations in the yield of barley, durum wheat, olives and sunflower crops in Tuscany, Italy. In particular, the blocking circulation over the growing season, with associated hot and dry conditions, decreased yield for olive crops, barley and durum wheat. The teleconnections analysed in this study are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF); and although NAO, SNAO, ITF and WAM are not strictly related to each other, the values of these indices are strongly related to the atmospheric circulation regimes and related weather types. Thus, they have an impact on precipitation and temperature patterns in Italy and on yields of important crops in Tuscany. Results show that the large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly influences the crop yield through three main circulation regimes. These patterns illustrate the importance of the large-scale modes, which, together with the associated weather types, have an impact directly on Tuscan crop yields; both barley and olive yields decline significantly when the ITF is further north with warmer and drier conditions in Italy.
Highlights
Several studies have shown that the expected growth of the world’s population to almost 9 billion by 2050, dietary changes, and increase in biofuel consumption will increase the agricultural demand by some 50% compared to 2013 (FAO, 2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2018; Searchinger et al, 2019)
Considering North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), for example, its influence is more evident for north European areas, some studies demonstrate that NAO impacts on weather variables in the Mediterranean at a local scale (Del Pozo et al, 2019), which are correlated with grapevine yield and quality (Dalla Marta et al, 2010), wheat yield (Dalla Marta et al, 2011) and olive pollen production (Avolio et al, 2008)
The ‘blocking’ weather types are characterized by precipitation lower than the climatological average throughout the March–Teleconnections between large-scale patterns of climate variability, circulation regimes and weather types
Summary
Several studies have shown that the expected growth of the world’s population to almost 9 billion by 2050, dietary changes, and increase in biofuel consumption will increase the agricultural demand by some 50% compared to 2013 (FAO, 2017; Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2018; Searchinger et al, 2019). Different authors (Chen et al, 2004; Osborne and Wheeler, 2013; Ray et al, 2015; Najafi et al, 2019) have demonstrated that climate variability and their teleconnections have led to changes in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields at different scales. Nobre et al (2019) have shown the importance of climate variability in driving the interannual changes of meteorological variables These authors have shown that teleconnection indices (ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian Pattern) have an influence on the regional precipitation patterns and on the regional agricultural production. Considering NAO, for example, its influence is more evident for north European areas, some studies demonstrate that NAO impacts on weather variables in the Mediterranean at a local scale (Del Pozo et al, 2019), which are correlated with grapevine yield and quality (Dalla Marta et al, 2010), wheat yield (Dalla Marta et al, 2011) and olive pollen production (Avolio et al, 2008)
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