Linking climate change and insect pest distribution: an example using Agriotes ustulatus Shall. (Coleoptera: Elateridae)

Abstract

Abstract Agriotes ustulatus (Schaller, 1873) (Coleoptera: Elateridae) is an economically important agricultural pest. Recently, changes in the distribution and abundance of this species in Croatia have been established. The present study aimed: (i) to determine the abundance and dominance of A. ustulatus in four regions in Croatia; (ii) to test the effect of temperature and rainfall on dominance and distribution; and (iii) to determine the flight activity of the A. ustulatus adults (peak and swarming period). From 2001 until 2010, five Agriotes species were captured by pheromone traps placed in 17 fields within four counties. Differences in air temperature and rainfall were determined between regions. The highest dominance of A. ustulatus was recorded in the warmest eastern county and the species was classified as eudominant. High dominance was also observed in the western county, confirming that A. ustulatus occurs in higher population in this area. Species was subdominant where the mean air temperature was the lowest. The increase in dominance in the west could be explained by the significant positive correlation found between air temperature and dominance. The seasonal activity of the adults was from June to mid‐August, with peak flight at the end of June.