Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

Giulia Mussap,Nadia Pinardi,Marco Zavatarelli

doi:10.1007/s10236-017-1106-8

Giulia Mussap, Nadia Pinardi + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-017-1106-8

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Journal: Ocean Dynamics	Publication Date: Oct 24, 2017
Citations: 2	License type: open-access

Affiliation: University of Bologna

Abstract

The use of a one-dimensional interdisciplinary numerical model of the coastal ocean as a tool contributing to the formulation of ecosystem-based management (EBM) is explored. The focus is on the definition of an experimental design based on ensemble simulations, integrating variability linked to scenarios (characterised by changes in the system forcing) and to the concurrent variation of selected, and poorly constrained, model parameters. The modelling system used was previously specifically designed for the use in “data-rich” areas, so that horizontal dynamics can be resolved by a diagnostic approach and external inputs can be parameterised by nudging schemes properly calibrated. Ensembles determined by changes in the simulated environmental (physical and biogeochemical) dynamics, under joint forcing and parameterisation variations, highlight the uncertainties associated to the application of specific scenarios that are relevant to EBM, providing an assessment of the reliability of the predicted changes. The work has been carried out by implementing the coupled modelling system BFM-POM1D in an area of Gulf of Trieste (northern Adriatic Sea), considered homogeneous from the point of view of hydrological properties, and forcing it by changing climatic (warming) and anthropogenic (reduction of the land-based nutrient input) pressure. Model parameters affected by considerable uncertainties (due to the lack of relevant observations) were varied jointly with the scenarios of change. The resulting large set of ensemble simulations provided a general estimation of the model uncertainties related to the joint variation of pressures and model parameters. The information of the model result variability aimed at conveying efficiently and comprehensibly the information on the uncertainties/reliability of the model results to non-technical EBM planners and stakeholders, in order to have the model-based information effectively contributing to EBM.

Highlights

The global coastal ocean is an intensively studied part of the global ocean, because of its complex dynamics, its ecological and socio-economical importance and its sensitivity to changes (Mackenzie et al 2004; Robinson and Brink 2006)
The parameter choice was based on low-level trophic variables that were considered to be important in defining system dynamics, but affected by considerable uncertainty because of poor observational evidence
The purpose of this study was to assess the possible use of numerical models in contributing to the definition of ecosystem-based management (EBM) management plans, facing the possible direct or indirect changes in the forcing functions of the coastal ocean ecosystem

Summary

Introduction

The global coastal ocean is an intensively studied part of the global ocean, because of its complex dynamics, its ecological and socio-economical importance and its sensitivity to changes (Mackenzie et al 2004; Robinson and Brink 2006). This delicate system is often subject to strong, and continuously increasing, anthropogenic pressures. The adoption of a marine ecosystem-based management (EBM) approach has become essential. EBM (Slocombe 1993) involves the management and sustainable use of the marine resources (Atkins et al 2011), considering natural changes and human activities as components of the larger ecosystem (Arkema et al 2006; Coll and Libralato 2012)

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