Abstract
This paper presents the synchronisation of economic cycles of GDP and crude oil and oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports. On the one hand, this issue fits into the concept of sustainable development including decoupling; on the other hand, the synchronisation may be an early warning tool. Crude oil and oil products cargo volumes are a specific barometer that predicts the next economic cycle, especially as they are primary sources of energy production. The research study applies a number of TRAMO/SEATS methods, the Hodrick–Prescott filter, spectral analysis, correlation and cross-correlation function. Noteworthy is the modern approach of using synchronisation of economic cycles as a tool, which was described in the paper. According to the study results, the cyclical components of the cargo traffic and GDP were affected by the leakage of other short-term cycles. However, based on the cross-correlation, it was proved that changes in crude oil and oil products cargo volumes preceded changes in GDP by 1–3 quarters, which may be valuable information for decision-makers and economic development planners.
Highlights
This study focuses on the synchronisation of economic cycles of gross domestic product (GDP) and crude oil and oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports
It approaches economic cycle synchronisation as an early warning tool in economic management in the context of the sustainable development concept, which includes the paradigm of decoupling
While issues related to economic cycles and their synchronisation are quite common research problems addressed in the literature, the approach presented in this article is innovative, as no similar research study has far been completed on the basis of seaports
Summary
This study focuses on the synchronisation of economic cycles of gross domestic product (GDP) and crude oil and oil products cargo volumes in major Polish seaports (energy delivery; crude oil is the primary world source of energy production). It approaches economic cycle synchronisation as an early warning tool in economic management in the context of the sustainable development concept, which includes the paradigm of decoupling. While issues related to economic cycles and their synchronisation are quite common research problems addressed in the literature, the approach presented in this article is innovative, as no similar research study has far been completed on the basis of seaports. The authors have taken an interdisciplinary approach to these issues, firstly, by presenting the genesis of and problems related to the concepts (theoretical approach); secondly, by referring to the academic achievements found in other papers or research studies (empirical and pragmatic approach) and thirdly, by combining the former and the latter in the form of policies, tools, strategies and types of measures (hybrid approach)
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