Abstract
Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5°C) to two degrees (2°C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5°C - 6°C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population; 2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions; and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO2 compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.
Highlights
This paper is an extension of the work originally presented at the IEEE International Symposium on Technology and Society (ISTAS) in 2019 (Valone & Panting, 2019)
This extended work includes educational slides used at ISTAS and most recently at COFE12 which present a compelling case for the irrefutable necessity of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the gigaton level, based on the record-breaking emissions amount already in the atmosphere
The upshot of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) period was a 5000 billion ton (5 trillion ton or 5 teraton) increase in carbon dioxide worldwide in a few millennia, which is comparable to the present accumulation rate of excess global atmospheric CO2 just by 2100 (40/yr × 80 yrs = 3 teraton) with a rough estimate of the annual increase we are pumping into the earth’s atmosphere presently on top of the amount already added to the atmosphere from the start of the Industrial Age which equals 4 teratons by 2100. (Note: The 1 teraton of CO2 is found from taking the present 410 ppm minus the baseline 290 ppm = 120 ppm and multiplying by 7.77 Gt/ppm conversion factor)
Summary
This paper is an extension of the work originally presented at the IEEE International Symposium on Technology and Society (ISTAS) in 2019 (Valone & Panting, 2019) This extended work includes educational slides used at ISTAS and most recently at COFE12 (https://www.integrityresearchinstitute.org/cofe.html) which present a compelling case for the irrefutable necessity of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the gigaton level, based on the record-breaking emissions amount already in the atmosphere. The unmitigated growth of carbon emissions worldwide reached a record 37 billion tons of CO2 (in one year) at the end of 2018, with the U.S, India and China leading the increase (Dennis & Mooney, 2018). The black dotted line with the square symbols represents the averaging correction for the seasonal cycle. Most of the emissions are in the Northern Hemisphere (NOAA, 2021-d)
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