Linear and non-linear dynamics of ecosystem services supply, demand, and mismatches across a rapidly urbanizing region

Abstract

Achieving the sustainability of coupled human-nature systems requires matching the ecosystem services (ES) provided by nature to the needs of society. However, most of the current studies on ES supply–demand relationships focus on spatial mismatches and rarely consider their temporal dynamics. In this study, the year-by-year dynamics (2001–2020) of 12 ESs at multiple spatial scales were investigated by using space–time interaction (STI) analysis, fuzzy C-mean clustering, and emerging hotspot analysis. We found that (1) three forms of temporal dynamics of ES indicators can be identified, including linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics. (2) Temporal dynamic patterns of the same ES were not consistent across all counties, showing great spatial heterogeneity. The temporal dynamics of each ES type at each county were spatially explicitly clustered into linear dynamics, fluctuating dynamics, and regime shift dynamics with different means. (3) The ES supply–demand relationships can shift between supply–demand balance, excess supply, and excess demand when the temporal dynamics of ES supply do not match with that of ES demand. Our results suggest that temporal dynamic analysis in ecological restoration effectiveness assessment can help to avoid erroneous results compared to considering only pre- and post-policy ES changes. The identified emerging hotspots of excess supply and excess demand can help decision-makers more accurately identify priority locations for management.