Limits to growth: The case of Dutch prison capacity

Abstract

This article deals with the question of why the dentention capacity in the Netherlands has been increasing since 1975, and what the consequences are for the future. Analysis is based on literature. Dutch policy is reactive: capacity depends on the sum of detention sentences. The interaction between the judicial system and its political imbedding leads to a continuous growth in detention capacity. This spin-off process is also active when crime is not increasing. As a consequence, continuation of this growth is to be expected. It is not clear whether judges allow capacity to affect the length of the prison sentences they pass. If so, a spiral process is going on, where the increase in capacity fuels the need for a greater capacity in the future. In theory, this spiral could also go downwards. Therefore, when the spiral is stronger than the spin-off, a pro-active government policy could lead to a reduction in capacity. However, as it is not clear that this is the case, it is concluded that the detention capacity could best be reduced by ad hoc measures like legalising drugs.