Limiting fossil fuel production as the next big step in climate policy

Abstract

Despite the current ambivalence of the United States towards the Paris Agreement, national and local jurisdictions across the globe remain committed, and they are seeking ways to increase the ambition and effectiveness of their climate policies. One way forwards could be limiting the production — not just the consumption — of coal, gas and oil. Here we describe the rationale for, and CO2 emissions implications of, limiting oil production. Seven countries have recently imposed such limits, and we develop a case study for a potential addition to this group, the US state of California. We find that by ceasing the issuance of permits for new oil wells, California could reduce global CO2 emissions substantially and also enhance environmental justice in the state. Climate policy is heavily focused on reducing demand for fossil fuels, but supply-side polices represent a potentially powerful tool to reduce CO2 emissions. This Perspective uses the US state of California as a case study to explore the rationale and possible impacts of limiting oil production.