Abstract
AbstractClimate models are widely used to project future climate changes and analyze underlying mechanisms. However, it remains unknown whether the earlier precipitation projections match the subsequent observations in recent decades, which is the scientific basis for the confidence of precipitation projections and associated impacts. Here, we find models in the Third (TAR), Fourth (AR4), and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) skillfully project the subsequent climatological changes in global mean land precipitation for 2002–2020, 2008–2020, and 2014–2020 (relative to 1980–1999 climatology) from several to 10 years ahead, respectively. Skillful regional projections are mainly found in the northern mid to high latitudes. IPCC models are less skillful in projecting subsequent changes in land precipitation at regional scales than at global scales, which is likely to be at least partly explained by the lower signal‐to‐noise ratio.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
