Limited Role of Downtowns in Meeting Metropolitan Housing Needs

Abstract

Downtowns used to be coveted as places in which to live. Except for such notable examples as Manhattan Island, Chicago’s Northside, and San Francisco, nearly all downtowns since the end of World War II have lost population to the suburbs. Their allure may be returning, however. Many downtowns have rebounded and now contain more people and households than a decade ago. This Forum discussion comments on the extent to which downtowns are attracting people and households. It begins with a general assessment of the increasing share of new residential development being attracted to central cities, placing downtowns within that context. Using proprietary data acquired by the writers, it then reports general trends of downtown area residential development from 1980 through 1999 among 19 cases selected for this study. The discussion divides the sample of downtowns into those that experienced sustained flight or sustained attraction throughout the study period, or rebounded during the 1990s after a decline during the 1980s. This is followed by a snapshot of who lives in downtown areas. The discussion concludes with an assessment of the extent to which downtowns may accommodate the metropolitan demand for residential development, concluding that at their best downtowns are not likely to attract more than perhaps a percent or so of future metropolitan regional population growth. The Wichita Business Journal once observed that, “If you lived downtown, you could be home now” Miara 1998 . The article proceeded to examine the status of the downtown housing market in six cities throughout the United States. At the time, the renewed interest in downtown housing was quickly becoming a hot topic for debate for a wide variety of audiences. Downtown housing was being discussed in newspapers and trade journals, by public policy analysts and young professionals contemplating their futures. Certainly this last group is a major contributor to the building momentum of the downtown housing market. The link between images in popular culture of the intown lifestyle and consumer demand for urban living has become increasingly clear in the past decade. Groth 1994 and Karp et al. 1991 give us the sense of what it may be like to live downtown. Now we find downtown living is popularized on television and in the movies. With the introduction of “Generation X” into the housing market, the allure of downtown living has been rekindled, at least for now Birch 2002, 2005 . Consider also Houston’s 1998 obser-