Limited climate benefits of global recycling of pulp and paper

Abstract

A circular economy is expected to achieve sustainability goals through efficient and circular use of materials. Waste recycling is an important part of a circular economy. However, for some materials, the potential environmental benefits of recycling are unclear or contested. Here, we focus on the global paper life cycle, which generates 1.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and estimate the climate change mitigation potential of circularity. We model material use, energy use and emissions up to 2050 for various levels of waste recycling and recovery. We show that emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global warming target require strong reductions in the carbon intensity of electricity and heat generation. We also show that additional recycling yields small or negative climate change mitigation benefits when it requires high-carbon grid electricity and displaces virgin pulping that is powered by low-carbon pulping by-products. The results indicate that circular economy efforts should carefully consider the energy implications of recycling.