Abstract
How much coal will India need to transport in future and is the rail network poised to handle that requirement are two important questions for the emerging economy. To find answers to these questions, this study creates a distribution model of coal freight traffic on Indian Railways, analyzing the sufficiency of infrastructure for future economic needs. Using data on spatial distribution of coal mines, coal traffic volumes and rail sectional capacities, this study creates sectional capacity maps as main visual tool for analysis. Sections with bottlenecks are identified for next ten years’ coal transport need of the country. The simulation done in this study finds 15% under-delivery for the 900mT coal demand in the country by 2030 due to transport bottlenecks. Based on this analysis, the article presents the conclusions on possible influence of existing conditions of coal transportation on India’s economy in the long-term period and also considers the role of dedicated freight. JEL Codes: E17, L92, L98, R41, R42
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