Limited and time-delayed internal resource allocation generates oscillations and chaos in the dynamics of citrus crops

Abstract

Alternate bearing or masting is a yield variability phenomenon in perennial crops. The complex dynamics in this phenomenon have stimulated much ecological research. Motivated by data from an eight-year experiment with forty-eight individual trees, we explored the mechanism inherent to these dynamics in Satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.). By integrating high-resolution imaging technology, we found that the canopy structure and reproduction output of individual citrus crops are mutually dependent on each other. Furthermore, it was revealed that the mature leaves in early season contribute their energy to the fruiting of the current growing season, whereas the younger leaves show a delayed contribution to the next growing season. We thus hypothesized that the annual yield variability might be caused by the limited and time-delayed resource allocation in individual plants. A novel lattice model based on this hypothesis demonstrates that this pattern of resource allocation will generate oscillations and chaos in citrus yield.