Limitations on the accuracy of model predictions of wildland fire behaviour: A state-of-the-knowledge overview

Abstract

The degree of accuracy in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour characteristics are dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data. While much progress has been made by fire behaviour research in the past 35 years or so in addressing these three sources of model error, the accuracy in model predictions are still very much at the mercy of our present understanding of the natural phenomena exhibited by free-burning wildland fires and the inherent temporal and spatial variability in the fire environment. This paper will serve as a state-of-the-art primer on the subject of error sources in model predictions of wildland fire behaviour and includes a short historical overview of wildland fire behaviour research as it relates to model development.