Limitations of the Commission’s “Length of Incarceration and Recidivism” Report (2022)

Abstract

The U.S. Sentencing Commission a report entitled “Length of Incarceration and Recidivism,” in 2022 examining a cohort of federally convicted incarcerated individuals released in 2010. It asserts that individuals sentenced to 60–120 months, as well as those sentenced to over 120 months, had lower odds of rearrest compared to matched groups of individuals with shorter sentence lengths. The Report concludes that incarceration for sentences of longer than five years has a preventative effect; however, the report did not communicate its results clearly and accurately. Stakeholders and interested observers should be skeptical of the Report’s conclusion for at least five reasons: (1) the emphasized conclusion is an outlier; (2) the Report uses flawed variables; (3) the study design cannot determine causation; (4) results are presented in a way that can confuse a nontechnical audience; and (5) the Report lacks transparency.