Limit hypersurface state of the art Gaidai multivariate risk evaluation approach for offshore Jacket

Abstract

Current study presents state of the art approach to risk and reliability assessment for multivariate nonlinear dynamic systems. Specifically, novel hypersurface Gaidai risks evaluation methodology has been presented for evaluating offshore structural risks. Advocated approach being particularly suitable for offshore engineering multidimensional dynamic systems, possessing large number of critical components, that have either been physically observed/measured, or numerically modeled over a representative timelapse. Advocated Gaidai hypersurface structural risks evaluation methodology is applicable for a wide range of engineering and industrial systems. This study demonstrates that given in situ environmental conditions, it is well possible to assess accurately risks of system’s failures, damages or hazards, caused by excessive structural dynamics. Multivariate dynamic systems, possessing nonlinear cross-correlations between critical system’s components often present design challenges, when utilizing classic structural risks evaluation approaches, as those are mostly only univariate or bivariate. Dynamic offshore Jacket hot spot stresses have been utilized as an example in this reliability investigation. Modeling system’s excessive dynamics is challenging because of the non-stationarity of the system and the intricacy of fluid-structural dynamic interactions, arising from in situ wave-induced loads, influencing Jacket’s structural dynamics. Nonlinearities greatly affect structural dynamics, e.g., 2nd, 3rd, higher order effects within fluid-structural interactions. Methodology presented in this work offers a straightforward, effective, yet precise means of assessing the risks of failure or hazard for multivariate, non-stationary, non-linear dynamic offshore systems. For bivariate case, verification note has been added.