Abstract
A procedure for the evaluation of the conditional probability of collapse of elastic–plastic structures with stochastic strengths is presented. The procedure represents an extension to the stochastic framework of the static approach, coupled with the method of redundant unknowns, well established in the classical deterministic limit analysis. In this paper, a kinematic approach for probabilistic limit analysis, provided in the literature, is also recalled in order to show the duality with the proposed static approach. A beam of elastic perfectly plastic material with correlated stochastic strengths is studied and the influence of the degree of correlation between cross-sections is evidenced. When a low correlation is encountered an accurate discretisation is necessary. Furthermore, investigation of the influence of different collapse events on the conditional probability of collapse is conducted for a frame structure.
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