Lightning risk assessment using fuzzy logic

Abstract

A lightning risk assessment necessarily implies a set of uncertainties related to lightning strike probability, presence of a damage channel (type of coupling) or presence of a victim (equipment, human beings, structure itself, etc.). In order to quantify and qualify these uncertainties a risk assessment methodology using fuzzy logic is proposed. Fuzzy logic seems to be a powerful tool capable of combining linguistic and numeric variables in order to estimate the subjectiveness involved in risk analysis and determine whether a risk level is acceptable or not. The methodology proposed in this paper is a contribution to the analysis of risk of damage due to lightning, particularly applied in Tropical Regions, where parameters such as ground flash density—GFD, and lightning current peak value—LCPV present a special behavior and determine the frequency and Intensity of lightning phenomenon.