Abstract
In this paper, a lifetime estimation method for underground cable systems is proposed by combining a health index (HI) and conditional factor (CF). The underground cable system consists of underground cable, joint, termination, manhole, and duct bank. The HI is an indicator to indicate the actual condition of underground cable components and systems whereas the CF is used to indicate different operating stresses of the system under different operating conditions such as percentage loading, electrical stresses, laying structure, environment, etc. The actual technical data as well as historical operating and testing records are applied. The weighting and scoring method with the analytical hierarchy process are used to classify an importance of underground cable components, testing methods, and criteria used in the HI and CF calculation. The annual calculated HIs are plotted to investigate the lifetime trending curve by using a polynomial function. The degradation curve based on calculated CF is estimated by using the Weibull distribution function. Finally, the remaining life of the underground cable system is determined by matching the lifetime trending curve with the degradation curve. Ten practical underground cable systems supplying power in a high voltage power delivery system are evaluated with effective results. The lifetime of the underground cable system can be successfully estimated.
Highlights
Underground power cable systems have been widely used in many countries, in transmission and distribution systems and in industrial areas
This paper proposes a new lifetime estimation method for underground cable systems by combining the conventional health index approach with an indicator of cable system degradation known as conditional factor as representative of the difference in various usage conditions of the cable system
The actual technical and operating data with historical testing records were stored in the central database via developed web application software
Summary
Underground power cable systems have been widely used in many countries, in transmission and distribution systems and in industrial areas. The proposed health index is static and probably only updated annually after the annual routine inspection and testing are performed Since this static health index is annually evaluated and recorded in the central database, its decreasing trend can be observed from the plotting of its historical value against usage time and the remaining lifetime can be estimated [11]. This numerical technique is interesting, but it requires accuracy improvement to become an effective tool to facilitate the lifetime estimation of an underground cable system. The lifetime estimation of the underground cable system is of prime concern for utilities, especially as a novel technique to prevent the aging analysis of polymeric material from the cut sample of considered underground cable [12], which is nearly impossible to obtain from the highly significant cable route
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