Lifelong Property Price Prediction: A Case Study for the Toronto Real Estate Market

Abstract

We present LUCE, the first life-long predictive model for automated property valuation. LUCE addresses two critical issues of property valuation: the lack of recent sold prices and the sparsity of house data. It is designed to operate on limited volume of recent house transaction. As a departure from prior work, LUCE organizes the house data in a HIN where graph nodes are house entities and attributes that are important for house price valuation. We employ GCN to extract the spatial information from the HIN, and then use LSTM network to model the temporal dependencies over time. Unlike prior work, LUCE makes effective use of the limited house transactions in the past few months to update valuation information for all house entities. By providing a complete and up-to-date house valuation dataset, LUCE thus massively simplifies the downstream valuation task for the targeting properties. We demonstrate the benefit of LUCE by applying it to large, real-life datasets obtained from the Toronto real estate market. Extensive experimental results show that LUCE not only significantly outperforms prior property valuation methods but also often reaches and sometimes exceeds the valuation accuracy given by independent experts when using the actual realization price as the ground truth.