Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions and Energy Return on Investment for 80% Domestic Renewable Electricity with Battery Storage in California (U.S.A.)

Marco Raugei,Alessio Peluso,Enrica Leccisi,Vasilis Fthenakis

doi:10.3390/en13153934

Abstract

This paper presents a detailed life-cycle assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative demand for total and non-renewable primary energy, and energy return on investment (EROI) for the domestic electricity grid mix in the U.S. state of California, using hourly historical data for 2018, and future projections of increased solar photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity with lithium-ion battery energy storage, so as to achieve 80% net renewable electricity generation in 2030, while ensuring the hourly matching of the supply and demand profiles at all times. Specifically—in line with California’s plans that aim to increase the renewable energy share into the electric grid—in this study, PV installed capacity is assumed to reach 43.7 GW in 2030, resulting of 52% of the 2030 domestic electricity generation. In the modelled 2030 scenario, single-cycle gas turbines and nuclear plants are completely phased out, while combined-cycle gas turbine output is reduced by 30% compared to 2018. Results indicate that 25% of renewable electricity ends up being routed into storage, while 2.8% is curtailed. Results also show that such energy transition strategy would be effective at curbing California’s domestic electricity grid mix carbon emissions by 50%, and reducing demand for non-renewable primary energy by 66%, while also achieving a 10% increase in overall EROI (in terms of electricity output per unit of investment).

Highlights

Today, ensuring the energy delivery that societies need for productivity, economic growth and well-being is crucial
A previous study on PV + lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage [28] performed a sensitivity analysis whereby lithium manganese oxide (LMO) batteries were compared to nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) alternatives, but the results showed comparatively small variance ranges for both energy and greenhouse gas impacts
Module) were kept constant in both scenarios. This analysis has shown that an energy transition in the California electricity sector hinging on the large-scale deployment of photovoltaic energy with lithium-ion battery energy storage would potentially be very effective at swiftly curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, down to one half of the current level by 2030

Summary

Introduction

Today, ensuring the energy delivery that societies need for productivity, economic growth and well-being is crucial. The world is experiencing an increase in human population and energy demand per capita, and this has led to a rapid increase in carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere from 280 ppm (parts per million) to over 400 ppm. Curbing a further increase in carbon emissions is one of the major challenges of this century as discussed in the negotiations culminating in The Paris Agreement in 2015 [2]. This agreement to address climate change was the first that was signed by 195 countries, and its overall aim is to keep the global temperature below. Change (UNFCCC) act to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere though a range of measures, among which decarbonizing electric grid systems plays a prominent role.

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