Leveraging the power of machine learning and data balancing techniques to evaluate stability in smart grids

Abstract

Modernizing traditional power grids into smart grids represents a significant advancement in improving efficiency and sustainability within the energy sector. However, integrating renewable energy sources and the intricate network of interconnected devices has presented new challenges, especially in grid stability. Anticipating and maintaining grid stability ensures a continuous energy supply and prevents potential disruptions. This research paper explores the smart grid stability issue through machine learning. Two distinct scenarios are examined. In the first scenario, the problem is approached as a binary classification task, where grid states are categorized as stable or unstable, a well-established method for addressing grid stability. In the second scenario, an effort is made to predict continuous values that reflect the degree of grid stability. These continuous values are subsequently mapped to a conditional function, facilitating stability detection based on a predefined threshold. To address data imbalance, two balancing strategies, specifically the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) and K-means SMOTE, are employed in each scenario. The analysis covers a range of regressors and classifiers, focusing on tree-based models, boosting algorithms, ensemble learners, and Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP). The investigation results demonstrate that combining the K-means SMOTE strategy with the CatBoost Classifier in the first scenario achieves the highest accuracy, reaching an impressive 99.6%, and an exceptional ability to detect grid instability, achieving 100% accuracy. Furthermore, the results of the second scenario are promising, with accuracy rates reaching 99.4%, thanks to the utilization of a stacking ensemble learner. Notably, this study introduces Explainable AI, a groundbreaking initiative in this field, to delve into the inner workings of the proposed models and enhance their transparency. This pioneering effort marks a significant step forward in understanding and optimizing the predictive capabilities of machine learning models applied to smart grid stability.