Leveraging Pre‐Storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Abstract

AbstractDespite long‐standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium‐scale (200–10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre‐storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm‐scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm‐scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi‐humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm‐scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high‐quality ASM values (available quasi‐globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin‐wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean‐absolute error.