Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study to appraise the potential impact of climate change

Abstract

The global burden of disease (GBD) annually models deaths and diseases as disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lost due to disability (YLDs) for more than 350 diseases and injuries in 195 countries and 990 sub-national locations, by age and sex, from 1990 to the present. In addition, the GBD entails a comprehensive risk assessment framework in which a multitude of metabolic, behavioral and environmental risk factors are systematically assessed. The internal consistency of the GBD allows comparison over time, across age groups and gender, as well as in between populations, causes and risk factors. In 2019, an initial assessment of the role of climate the GBD included non-optimal temperature as a risk factor and estimated the burden attributable to high and low temperature exposure. Globally, the study attributed 2.0 million (95%UI=1.7-2.2) deaths and 37.6 million (95%UI=32.4-44.3) DALYs to non-optimal temperature exposure with a large number due to cardiovascular disease as well as metabolic and respiratory diseases. External causes, such as suicide, homicide and injuries were strongly affected by high temperature while low temperature exerted a protective effect. Currently, we are extending this work to future projections until 2100, considering climate and population change. Beyond the assessment of these direct and very immediate impacts of temperature, the GBD contains additional information relevant to climate impact assessment. Here, we present a framework for future use of GBD data to assess the global disease health burden related to climate change. We outline causes and risks that may be related to climate change and illustrate how the potential future impact of global warming versus other drivers such as demographic and epidemiological changes can be evaluated.