Leverage effect, economic policy uncertainty and realized volatility with regime switching

Abstract

In this study, we first investigate the impacts of leverage effect and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on future volatility in the framework of regime switching. Out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RV including the leverage effect and economic policy uncertainty with regimes can achieve higher forecast accuracy than RV-type and GARCH-class models. Our robustness results further imply that these factors in the framework of regime switching can substantially improve the HAR-RV’s forecast performance.