Abstract

The relationship between demographic cycles and school enrollment rates in the United States is explored. The authors show how individuals act so as to fill in the peaks and troughs of the demographic cycle by timing their entry into the labor market through education. It is suggested that those born at the beginning of the baby boom are likely to have the highest school enrollment rates while those born at the end are likely to have the lowest rates. This asymmetric demographic effect is tested in a time series equation. [The] model helps to explain the surprisingly steep decline in school enrollment rates during the 1970s. (EXCERPT)

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