Level 1 Tornado PRA for the High Flux Beam Reactor

Abstract

This report describes a risk analysis primarily directed at providing an estimate for the frequency of tornado induced damage to the core of the High Flux Beam Reactor (HFBR), and thus it constitutes a Level 1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) covering tornado induced accident sequences. The basic methodology of the risk analysis was to develop a ``tornado specific`` plant logic model that integrates the internal random hardware failures with failures caused externally by the tornado strike and includes operator errors worsened by the tornado modified environment. The tornado hazard frequency, as well as earlier prepared structural and equipment fragility data, were used as input data to the model. To keep modeling/calculational complexity as simple as reasonable a ``bounding`` type, slightly conservative, approach was applied. By a thorough screening process a single dominant initiating event was selected as a representative initiator, defined as: ``Tornado Induced Loss of Offsite Power.`` The frequency of this initiator was determined to be 6.37E-5/year. The safety response of the HFBR facility resulted in a total Conditional Core Damage Probability of .621. Thus, the point estimate of the HFBR`s Tornado Induced Core Damage Frequency (CDF) was found to be: (CDF){sub Tornado} = 3.96E-5/year. This value represents only 7.8% of the internal CDF and thus is considered to be a small contribution to the overall facility risk expressed in terms of total Core Damage Frequency. In addition to providing the estimate of (CDF){sub Tornado}, the report documents, the relative importance of various tornado induced system, component, and operator failures that contribute most to (CDF){sub Tornado}.