Let’s go throwing stones and stealing cars: offender adaptability and the security hypothesis

Abstract

The security hypothesis posits that the international crime drop can be attributed to, in large part, improvements in security technology. However, in recent years, certain types of property crime are increasing. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that offenders are adapting to increased security in vehicles through burglarizing residences to steal keys. We analyze residential burglaries, thefts of vehicles, and their co-occurrences in Brisbane Australia (2009–2018) to identify changes in their temporal patterns. Residential burglaries declined while thefts of vehicle remained relatively constant. Co-occurrences of residential burglaries and thefts of vehicle doubled while the rate almost tripled. Data signatures indicate a shift in modus operandi showing significant increases in the use of residential burglaries to facilitate thefts of vehicle.