Abstract
The first case of COVID-19 was detected in North Carolina (NC) on March 3, 2020. By the end of April, the number of confirmed cases had soared to over 10,000. NC health systems faced intense strain to support surging intensive care unit admissions and avert hospital capacity and resource saturation. Forecasting techniques can be used to provide public health decision makers with reliable data needed to better prepare for and respond to public health crises. Hospitalization forecasts in particular play an important role in informing pandemic planning and resource allocation. These forecasts are only relevant, however, when they are accurate, made available quickly, and updated frequently. To support the pressing need for reliable COVID-19 data, RTI adapted a previously developed geospatially explicit healthcare facility network model to predict COVID-19’s impact on healthcare resources and capacity in NC. The model adaptation was an iterative process requiring constant evolution to meet stakeholder needs and inform epidemic progression in NC. Here we describe key steps taken, challenges faced, and lessons learned from adapting and implementing our COVID-19 model and coordinating with university, state, and federal partners to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in NC.
Highlights
The United States is actively engaged in an effort to halt the physical and societal impacts of a deadly disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
We have seen that the most advanced health system can be stretched beyond capacity, highlighting the importance of forecasting hospital resource usage and needs
To be effective and make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving pandemic environment, key public health stakeholders require up-to-date forecasts that are based on near real-time data
Summary
The United States is actively engaged in an effort to halt the physical and societal impacts of a deadly disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In North Carolina (NC), the first case of COVID-19 was detected on March 3, 2020 [1]. An Emergency Task Force [2] was established but by the end of April 2020 the number of confirmed cases had soared to over 10,000. NC health systems faced intense strain to support surging intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and avert hospital capacity and resource saturation. Even advanced health systems can be stretched beyond capacity, resulting in worst-case scenarios for rationing of care [3].
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
