Lessons from the Use of Ranked Choice Voting in American Presidential Primaries

Rob Richie,Benjamin Oestericher,Jeremy Seitz-Brown,Deb Otis

doi:10.17645/pag.v9i2.3960

Abstract

Grounded in experience in 2020, both major political parties have reasons to expand use of ranked choice voting (RCV) in their 2024 presidential primaries. RCV may offer a ‘win-win’ solution benefiting both the parties and their voters. RCV would build on both the pre-1968 American tradition of parties determining a coalitional presidential nominee through multiple ballots at party conventions and the modern practice of allowing voters to effectively choose their nominees in primaries. Increasingly used by parties around the world in picking their leaders, RCV may allow voters to crowd-source a coalitional nominee. Most published research about RCV focuses on state and local elections. In contrast, this article analyzes the impact on voters, candidates, and parties from five state Democratic parties using RCV in party-run presidential nomination contests in 2020. First, it uses polls and results to examine how more widespread use of RCV might have affected the trajectory of contests for the 2016 Republican nomination. Second, it contrasts how more than three million voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries backed withdrawn candidates with the low rate of such wasted votes for withdrawn candidates in the states with RCV ballots. Finally, it concludes with an examination of how RCV might best interact with the parties’ current rules and potential changes to those rules.

Highlights

Many view America’s election of its president as one of the most important choices that the country makes
A poll of Republican voters conducted by FairVote in partnership with the College of William and Mary and YouGov in February 2016 at the time of the Iowa cau‐ cuses mirrored the effect of ranked choice voting (RCV) in the Republican primary process by asking respondents for their first‐choice candidate and their later rank‐ ings (FairVote, 2016)
The modern presidential primary process has evolved over time, and RCV ballots represent a logical step in the reform process, with potential benefits for both par‐ ties and voters

Summary

Introduction

Many view America’s election of its president as one of the most important choices that the country makes. For purposes of this article, a coalitional candidate is one who achieves the most support within their party by earning both first choice support and backup support from party conven‐ tion delegates or primary voters who prefer a different candidate, as measured by later ballots at contested con‐ ventions or backup rankings on RCV ballots. In this sense, RCV may help alter voter and candidate strategies. The fourth part of this article looks at RCV in the context of different party and state rules and potential changes to those rules

Academic Literature on the Dynamics of Presidential Nomination Contests

The Influence of Momentum in Presidential Primaries and Caucuses

Historical Context

Brokered Conventions Can Produce Coalitional Nominees

RCV Crowd‐Sources a Coalitional Nominee

RCV Counterfactual in 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination

Trump May Have Needed to Gain Support Outside of His Base with RCV Primaries

Presidential Primary Reform in Practice

How RCV Reduces ‘Wasted Votes’

Voters’ Use of Ranked Choice Ballots

Integrating RCV with Democratic Primary Rules

Integrating RCV with Republican Primary Rules