Lessons from the crisis

Abstract

The Great Recession has been an unplanned but critical stress test of contemporary fiscal policy and financial management. This article seeks to draw lessons from this crisis, whose final chapters have yet to be written. The lessons fall into two broad, overlapping categories: fiscal and economic policy; and budget procedures and practices. Section 1 looks back at the crisis in search of markers that distinguish between fiscally strong and weak countries. Section 2 looks forward to consider how national governments may avert future fiscal meltdowns by incorporating risk assessment and other early warning signals into routine budget work, and by devising more effective rules and procedures to ward off fiscal mischief. The concluding section reflects on how the practice of budgeting might be altered by shocks to established procedures.