Abstract
In the spring of 1997, the Red River VAlley experienced a traumatic flood event that inundated 80% of Grand Forks, North Dakota, and arguably inflicted the largest economic damage per capita ever suffered by an American city and certainly far greater losses that cannot be measured in dollars. By probing what happened, this study found that the losses were made much larger by sequential surprises. For reducing surprises, integrated physically based weather-hydrologic-hydraulic modleing can quantify maximum flows and stages as well as extreme scenarios during floods in real time to provide worst case as well as most probable stages. It can also be used tostructure forcasts around thresholds used in flood fighting decisions and to structure hazard mapping around option configurations of structural measures and building patterns. It is particularly important to implement contingency planning for levee failure. Stochastic hydrologic modeling can be used to stimulate preparedness and reduce surprise.
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