Abstract
The main activities of the Bison futé system are to make forecasts, provide information and conduct appraisals. This paper is only concerned with forecasting and the way the system’s models have evolved since it was created twenty-five years ago. With the most recent version of the system, which takes account of all the calendar variables that are known one year in advance and the interactions between them, forecasting has now been extended to a whole year. The three-pronged evaluation we have conducted confirms the quality of the modelling. A theoretical study has validated the usefulness of the selected variables and also confirmed that the new model meets the new requirements of Bison futé system. Secondly, by performing a classical post evaluation we have quantified the accuracy of the model at a given measurement point. Lastly, we have developed an original statistical consistency evaluation method which is used to ascribe a confidence index to the forecasts.
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