Les modes d’équilibrage des systèmes de retraite : éléments analytiques du débat

Abstract

Restoring equilibrium in pension systems : an analytical presentation We analyze the four main possibilities for restoring equilibrium of pension schemes in front of future demographic changes. Relying exclusively on a downward adjustment of pensions would imply a very large reduction of pensioners' relative standard of living. Relying exclusively on increases of contributions seems more realistic, but this would be at the expense of other social needs, and the neutrality of such a policy for employment levels cannot be warranted. Funding consists in anticipating requested financial efforts : its only advantage is that this financial effort will be lower in the long run, if returns on capital are permanently higher than economic growth. Raising the retirement age, at last, would be a logical answer to an increasing life expectancy, bur relying exclusively on this tool would, once again, imply a very large adjustment. On the whole, the answer to demographic changes will, probably, require a mix of these four instruments. JEL classification : D3, H55, J22, J26