Les importations de capitaux et d'équipements et la croissance dans les pays socialistes

Abstract

Capital and Equipment Imports and Growth' in Socialist Countries. The paper deals with the economic rationale and possible consequences of the growing western indebtedness of the socialist countries. In Section II a general framework of analysis is developed. In socialist countries the aggregate supply constitutes the limiting factor of economic expansion. Under this condition capital imports do accelerate growth. On the other hand, capital exports facilitate expansion of developed capitalist countries when inadequate aggregate demand is the limiting factor. In Section III the influence of western technology and know-how upon the level and the rate of growth of labour productivity is analysed. It is derived from the process of saturating the capital stock with imported technology. In Section IV two variants of growth are compared: without and with foreign credits. In phase A the indebtedness increases, in phase B the incurred debt is paid off. The variant with foreign credits assures a higher level of consumption during phase A and after phase B is over, while during phase B the outcome is indeterminate. Section V deals with the difficulties which the strategy of capital imports must take account of. The first one is related to a limit to which a country can increase her indebtedness. Secondly there is the problem of transforming the imported technology into the capacity to export to the West. Thirdly, the employment situation of western countries can be negatively influenced by import surpluses during the phase of repayment of credits. It can thus happen that in the long run capital imports lead to further aggravation of the difficulties in the western trade of the socialist countries.