Les Canaux De Transmission De La Crise Des Subprimes Aux Pays Emergents : Cas De L'Economie Brésilienne

Abstract

The movements of financial integration, the imperatives of market globalization and the countries interdependence (South-South and North-South) participated in the transmission of the US subprime crisis to the world, especially in emerging countries and from there the crisis acquires its global dimension. This economic evidence leaves to venture a guess that the contagion effect of the subprime crisis is expected to reach emerging not only at the level of the financial world, but especially in terms of their industrial spheres. Those countries with different economic and political affiliation in the past show now a sharing of structural and regulatory similarities that foreshadows a common vulnerability on their productive activities. Our work has sought first to demonstrate theoretically the transmission channels of the US financial crisis to the real structure including emerging industrial countries. Next, we measured this contagion effect on the level of industrial production in emerging countries by relativizing the intensity of the commercial channel relative to the financial channel for a sample of emerging countries and by applying an estimate panel data. Finally, we analyzed the shock effect in its temporal dimension to the case of the Brazilian economy through the estimation results of the vector error correction model and those of the impulse response functions at the level of the index Brazilian industrial production.