Les agrégats de monnaie et de crédit : leur utilisation dans la conduite de la politique monétaire française

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to study the use of some aggregates as proximate objectives and as intermediary targets of the monetary policy. After a justification of the interest and an accurate definition of the content of these terms, we will try to record the measure by the use of 2 types of tests : — The capacity of aggregates in order to be used as proximate objectives of the monetary policy can be approached by the analysis of the stability of their income velocity. In this respect the credit aggregates appear to be more reliable than monetary aggregates. — The analysis of causality relationship (as defined by Granger) between aggregates and the ultimate objectives of monetary policy enbales us to determine the optimal intermediary targets. The results demonstrate that the variations of the monetary aggregates have a significant influence on the economic activity, but not on the inflation rate. On the other hand, the variations of the general price level explain to a great extent the volution of credit aggregates. Those conclusions boil down to a criticism of classical concept of monetary policy. They suggest the utility of control, or in any case of the supervision of financings arranged for total finance granted to non-financial agents.