Legislative incapacity and underreporting of COVID-19 mortality

Abstract

The prevalent interpretation of COVID-19 mortality underreporting typically focuses on authoritarian regimes’ propensity for data manipulation. This study, however, posits that the demand side is integral to enhancing the veracity of COVID-19 mortality figures. Through quantitative analysis, it is demonstrated that legislative oversight of the executive significantly correlates with the divergence between excess mortality and officially reported COVID-19 mortality. Moreover, such oversight is shown to bolster the influence of bureaucratic capacity on the precision of mortality data. Consequently, these findings suggest that the notion of “autocratic advantage” in COVID-19 management is not solely a byproduct of regime-led data falsification but also a reflection of deficiencies in legislative and bureaucratic capacities.