Legislative electoral incumbent defeats: Cues from Ghana

Abstract

ABSTRACT The argument that incumbent politicians are frequently reelected into office gained traction in the legislative literature – giving birth to the incumbency advantage theory. This paper investigates why incumbents lost elections they are supposed to win – subjecting the incumbency advantage theory to new scrutiny. Using interview data collected in 2017 examining Ghana's 2016 parliamentary and presidential elections, including relying on data from the Electoral Commission (EC) and parliamentary archives, the article evaluates the sources of incumbency disadvantage among Ghanaian sitting legislators. It traces the growing trend in incumbency disadvantage to: (a) the overbearing effects of a strong executive arm of government on the legislature, (b) management of primary elections, (c) effective opposition party dynamics, and (d) perceptions of incumbent parliamentarians’ governance effectiveness. The evidence emerging from Ghana shows incumbents are susceptible to electoral defeats as their challengers, contrary to the dominant view that incumbents’ defeats are challenging, especially in African politics.