Abstract
Although it has been perhaps the most quiescent region in southern Russia, the Northwest Caucasus (Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachayevo-Cherkessia) has repeatedly demonstrated the potential for violent conflict since the fall of the Soviet Union. Since the 1999 presidential elections in Karachayevo-Cherkessia, when the republic very nearly de scended into civil war, terrorist acts have occurred on a regular basis, and the republic recently experienced another divisive conflict over the scheduling of the 2003 elections. Kabardino-Balkaria currently faces a similar crisis, as the reelection of President Valeri Kokov on 13 January is facing the same sort of challenge that ignited unrest in Karachayevo-Cherkessia in 1999. While Kokov's wide popUlarity and autocratic rule should avert violence in the near future, the electoral challenge points to a level of discontent in the republic that could escalate when Kokov retires. Against this background, an Islamic renaissance is making itself felt in the rural areas of both republics which has resulted in an increasing influence of sharia jurisprudential theory in law enforcement and civil mediation in those areas. Currently, three factions are competing for ideological control of these courts. Most citizens over 40 adhere to Islam as it has been traditionally practiced in the region. This form of Islam has been influenced to some extent by Sufism and, to a much greater degree than in Chechnya, by pre-Islamic traditions. The courts preferred by this group are based upon local adat, or customary, law with certain aspects of sharia incorporated. The second group is led by Arab scholars from Islamic universities, most notably AI-Azhar University in Cairo, who promote a refor mation to bring practices into line with the canonical version of one of the four Madhhabs, or schools of legal thought. These scholars will be assisted in the near future by local youths who are currently studying at AI-Azhar and other Middle Eastern Islamic centres and who will be returning over the next decade. The third group comprises various reformist movements which are generally categorised together as 'Wahhabis', although true Wahhabi adherents represent only the largest faction of this group. These groups share the common goal of imposing their own draconian interpretations of Islam on the entire area, with the more militant factions aspiring to the creation of an Islamic repUblic. The outcome of this competition will have serious long-term ramifications for the stability of the Northwest Caucasus, and this article will address the issues involved, the possibilities for achieving a peaceful resolution, and the scenarios that are likely to develop based upon the current situation and the federal government's attempts at intervention.
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