Legacy phosphorus delays the accomplishment of expected phosphorus management object

Abstract

Legacy phosphorus (P) in watersheds continuously affects the water quality. The time lag between anthropogenic P input and algal bloom has made P dynamics prediction in aquatic ecosystems more challenging. Whether the legacy P in the Yangtze River Watershed (YRW) exceeds its storage threshold remains unknown, and the continuous impact of legacy P on the water quality has not been analyzed. This study aimed to evaluate variation trends (1970–2018) and influencing factors for accumulated P in the YRW under different economic development periods, quantitatively identify the watershed P storage threshold based on the two split line models and estimate the time required for the return of legacy P to the baseline level using an exponential decay process. The results showed that the P storage threshold of the YRW was surpassed due to intense anthropogenic activities, and the residual P still had an impact on aquatic ecosystems for a long time. The dissolved total P loadings may become the top priority to achieve better P management goals. The time lags for the legacy P restoration would require for about 1000 years to be exhausted. The legacy P in the YRW would continuously undermine the restoration efforts of the water quality. The combined effects of watershed P surplus reductions and depletion of residual P may become essential to better manage P in the future. We still need to strengthen our efforts to make soil legacy P more absorbed by crops and improve sewage treatment capacity to achieve sustainable development of YRW.