Abstract
Subject Military manages rising Lebanese tensions. Significance The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have played a critical role in ensuring the country's relative stability since the start of the Arab uprisings in 2011. Among national institutions paralysed by sectarian divisions, the LAF is a relatively neutral and effective body. This has enabled it to manage the threat of spillover from the civil war in neighbouring Syria. Impacts The LAF's need to coordinate with Hezbollah and the Syrian regime to ensure internal stability could set it against Lebanese Sunnis. Western countries will prioritise military support for Lebanon, but will have to manage perceptions, given links to Hezbollah. There will be some security breaches, with likely infiltration from an increasingly desperate group of militants in the Arsal region.
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