Leaving (north-east) Asia? Japan's southern strategy

Abstract

The Japanese government has spent considerably more diplomatic energy on national security and foreign economic policy initiatives beyond north-east Asia over the last decade. Recognizing that its capacity and resolve are limited in ways that restrain its role in maritime deterrence outside north-east Asia, the Japanese government has focused on deploying ‘soft security infrastructure’ to advance its grand strategic designs. The government is also seeking to position Japanese businesses—and ultimately the Japanese economy—to take economic advantage of emerging production networks and the growing consumer base in ‘emerging Asia’—as well as, increasingly, in east Africa, in order to reduce its economic dependence on China and the West. The Japanese government anticipates that promoting the development of horizontally integrated economic corridors throughout subregions in emerging Asia and east Africa will be advantageous to Japanese commercial interests as well as enhance Japan's capacity, and others’, to resist Chinese economic and military coercion. Japan's grand strategy and pivot within Asia thus goes beyond reactive, short-term balancing behaviour. It is focused, in the long term, on drawing the centre of regional economic gravity away from China to enable Japan and other regional nations to exist and prosper on the outer rim of Chinese hegemony—and to actively contest it if necessary.