Least-Cost Electrification Modeling and Planning—A Case Study for Five Nigerian Federal States

Abstract

Nigeria is the African country with the highest total number of people without access to electricity, at least 90 million. To provide sustainable and affordable energy to these people is an enormous challenge. Advanced modeling and planning are essential tools to enhance the quality of investment decisions. Planning has to address the latest electrification options [grid extension, hybrid minigrids, and solar home systems (SHS)] in a technically and economically sound way for different implementation phases. We have developed a modeling process to derive a least-cost electrification plan for five federal states in Nigeria combining energy system simulations with geospatial information system tools. Investments of approximately $1600 million for medium-voltage (MV) and low-voltage distribution infrastructure, minigrids, and small-scale systems are required to achieve a 100% electrification rate. The simulated electricity system of the five states is characterized by an overall load of about 1804 MW. The electrification options comprise different electrification measures. About 1772 MW are supplied by central power generation through the central grid via 11 579-km new grid lines. The decentralized supply sources include only a few renewable energy (RE) minigrids with a total of 3-MW load will remain isolated, while all others will be interconnected to the central grid. The decentralized supply is defined by 225-MW photovoltaic (PV), 504-MWh battery, and 198-MW diesel-based isolated and interconnected minigrids as well as by 29-MW SHS capacities.