Learning to Target Authoritarian Sticks and Carrots: Mass Unrest, Repression and Food Policy in Socialist East Germany

Abstract

Theories of authoritarianism assert that autocratic governments follow repressive and redistributive policies which impede mass mobilization and mitigate economic grievances to prevent regime instability. However, policy formulation and implementation remain opaque and under-theorized elements of authoritarian politics. I argue that the mix of repressive and redistributive policies chosen by a regime is a function of intra-elite conflict between hard-liners and soft-liners. The power of the two factions and their influence on policy evolve as members of the elite learn to judge the comparative advantages of the regime in repression and redistribution. Hard-liners will be ascendant in regimes with a comparative advantage in repression, while soft-liners will be ascendant in regimes with a comparative advantage in redistribution. I illustrate these arguments with an account of the East German regime's response to the June 17 uprising in 1953, including analysis of an original dataset on secret police informants and food supplies after the unrest.