Learning Structure from Data and Its Application to Ozone Prediction

Abstract

In this paper we propose an algorithm for structure learning in predictive expert systems based on a probabilistic network representation. The idea is to have the “simplest” structure (minimum number of links) with acceptable predictive capability. The algorithm starts by building a tree structure based on measuring mutual information between pairs of variables, and then it adds links as necessary to obtain certain predictive performance. We have applied this method for ozone prediction in Mexico City, where the ozone level is used as a global indicator for the air quality in different parts of the city. It is important to predict the ozone level a day, or at least several hours in advance, to reduce the health hazards and industrial losses that occur when the ozone reaches emergency levels. We obtained as a first approximation a tree-structured dependency model for predicting ozone in one part of the city. We observe that even with only three parameters, its estimations are acceptable. A causal network representation and the structure learning techniques produced some very interesting results for the ozone prediction problem. Firstly, we got some insight into the dependence structure of the phenomena. Secondly, we got an indication of which are the important and not so important variables for ozone forecasting. Taking this into account, the measurement and computational costs for ozone prediction could be reduced. And thirdly, we have obtained satisfactory short term ozone predictions based on a small set of the most important parameters.