Learning processes and growth curves in the field of integrated circuits

Abstract

A model based on elementary probability theory is introduced which describes the accumulation of the knowledge and ability of many men, working on the improvement of a complex product such as an integrated circuit. The relative mastering of a given work frame necessary for the production of failure free circuits is considered to be equivalent to the process yield. Then by simple assumptions on the mean work behaviour of individuals the well known practical learning curves of yield result. Several relations are derived for a regular repetition of learning curves, which exist when the progress occurs in steps. Finally the growth of the complexity (number of elements per IC) is discussed, when we are approaching physical limits.