Learning Pathways and Students Performance: A Dynamic Complex System

Abstract

In this study, learning pathways are modelled by networks constructed from the log data of student-LMS interactions. These networks capture the sequence of reviewing the learning materials by the students enrolled in a given course. In previous research, the networks of successful students showed a fractal property; meanwhile, the networks of students who failed showed an exponential pattern. This research aims to provide empirical evidence that students' learning pathways have the properties of emergence and non-additivity from a macro level; meanwhile, equifinality (same end of learning process but different learning pathways) is presented at a micro level. Furthermore, the learning pathways of 422 students enrolled in a blended course are classified according to learning performance. These individual learning pathways are modelled by networks from which the relevant learning activities (nodes) are extracted in a sequence by a fractal-based method. The fractal method reduces the number of nodes to be considered relevant. A deep learning network classifies these sequences of each student into passed or failed. The results show that the accuracy of the prediction of the learning performance was 94%, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 97%, and the Matthews correlation was 88%, showing that deep learning networks can model equifinality in complex systems.