Learning in Repeated Auctions with Budgets

Abstract

In online advertising markets, advertisers often purchase ad placements through bidding in repeated auctions based on realized viewer information. We study how budget-constrained advertisers may bid in the presence of competition, when there is uncertainty about future bidding opportunities as well as competitors' heterogenous preferences and budgets. We formulate this problem as a sequential game of incomplete information, where bidders know neither their own valuation distribution, nor the budgets and valuation distributions of their competitors. We introduce a family of dynamic bidding strategies we refer to as "adaptive pacing" strategies, in which advertisers adjust their bids throughout the campaign according to the sample path of observed expenditures. We analyze the performance of this class of strategies under different assumptions on competitors' behavior. Under arbitrary competitors' bids, we establish through matching lower and upper bounds the asymptotic optimality of this class of strategies as the number of auctions grows large. When adopted by all the bidders, the dynamics converge to a tractable and meaningful steady state. Moreover, we show that these strategies constitute an approximate Nash equilibrium in dynamic strategies: The benefit of unilaterally deviating to other strategies, including ones with access to complete information, becomes negligible as the number of auctions and competitors grows large. This establishes a connection between regret minimization and market stability, by which advertisers can essentially follow equilibrium bidding strategies that also ensure the best performance that can be guaranteed off-equilibrium.